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A combination of real options, simulation and decision trees for investment decisions
Pavlovská, Tereza ; Dlouhý, Martin (advisor) ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (referee)
This thesis is concerned with the evaluation of real options whose value represents a certain flexibility of the firm to decide about company´s assets in the future. In addition to classic models which were developed for option rating, such as binomial and Black-Scholes model, which have advantages and disadvantages, there is introduced a possible combination of decision trees and simulation Monte Carlo which runs directly inside the tree. This combination can erase the disadvantages which these methods have when they are used separately for option evaluation. In this thesis there can be found an application example inspired by a real situation and there are described different possibilities of usage of the mentioned combination and there is also demonstrated an unambiguous advantage of this method and that is a bigger amount of information which is provided in comparison with standard models. It allows the company to access much more complex image of the investment. The result is also various option values according to the used technique.
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Possibilities of Deepening the Theory and Practice of Investment Decisions with an Emphasis on Real Options
Oceláková, Petra ; Valach, Josef (advisor) ; Hrdý, Milan (referee) ; Choulík, Petr (referee)
This dissertation deals with selected areas within capital budgeting theory and practice. The first part is focused on possibilities how to improve traditional financial metrics as net present value and internal rate of return by using graphical tools for their interpretation. The main practical problem can be considered not the methodology itself, but the inability to predict future cash flows correctly. The special attention is paid to depreciation in connection with Czech accounting and tax legislation and its influence on capital decisions. The second part of the dissertation concentrates on real option analysis. The crucial difference between net present value and real options analysis is in how these methods deal with the risk. Mathematical approach is used to derive how the volatility and other parameters affect the theoretical value of an investment determined by real option. The more volatile the future cash flows are the higher theoretical value of the real option should be. Nevertheless, there are some exceptions that are analysed in this paper. In final chapter, total cost of ownership and real option analysis are used to evaluate option to switch from on-premise IT solution to cloud computing.
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Evaluation of investment project – student housing
Vecán, Viktor ; Scholleová, Hana (advisor) ; Habrnal, Marek (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to evaluate an investment in refurbishment and subsequent maintenance of the property as accommodation facilities for students, and to give investors a recommendation on whether to implement the project. A market analysis in the thesis is used to identify a suitable area for the project implementation. Next part of the thesis introduces the investment project and its parameters in line with the investor's strategy. Last part of the thesis is dedicated to the evaluation of the financial plan and a sensitivity analysis.
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Use of Real Options in IT Investment Valuation
Polakovič, Robert ; Šebesta, Michal (advisor) ; Bruckner, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis presents the new approach to IT investment valuation by using real options. In the introductory part the traditional methods of information investment valuation are introduced and described. It gives a detailed summary of valuation methods that could be used for valuation made in the traditional way. Next part deals with the financial options, its definition, types, parameters and methods of valuation. Some basic methods of reducing the risks (hedging) with the help of financial options are mentioned as well. After that, the real options, the difference between real and financial options, behaviour, parameters and methods of valuation are introduced. Next chapter analyses and describes the chosen frameworks for using real options in IT investment valuation. The selection was performed so as to give reader a full idea of possible ways real options could be used. Final part presents a case study where one of the chosen frameworks is applied to a real project so as to show all aspects and level of complexity of this solution.
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Valuation of the internal project using real options methodology
Kopkáně, Heřman Bc. ; Scholleová, Hana (advisor) ; Juppa, Martin (referee)
Práce se zabývá stanovením hodnoty projektu pro účely přijetí investičního rozhodnutí. Jedná se o interní projekt implementace metodiky activity based costing (ABC/M) v konkrétní společnosti. Pro stanovení hodnoty je využita metodologie reálných opcí. V první části práce je uveden kontext investičního rozhodování a reálných opcí a dále základní principy ABC. V druhé části práce jsou nastíněny přínosy ABC a je proveden výpočet hodnoty projektu na základě definovaného modelu.
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The Real Options Application on the US Mergers and Acquisitions Market
Hlůže, Martin ; Scholleová, Hana (advisor) ; Kotáb, Jiří (referee)
The diploma thesis covers partial area of investment evaluation. It's main objective is to test the possible application of the real options theory on the Reverse Termination Fee valuation. This thesis considers the Reverse Termination Fee as a real option to abandon project and evaluates it using a binomial pricing model based on the volatility of the stock market. The result of this valuation is a price map. The map itself is analyzed together with the market analysis of announced trades using this fee as a deal protection. The conclusion of this thesis is formed based on observed trends and correlation between partial outputs of the binomial pricing model and market analysis.
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Value of strategic flexibility
Očovanová, Dominika ; Scholleová, Hana (advisor) ; Odcházel, Jiří (referee)
Primárním cílem diplomové práce bylo analyzovat a posoudit strategické investiční rozhodování firmy Lázně Poděbrady a.s. aplikací reálně opční metodologie. Samotné aplikaci reálných opcí na konkrétní investiční projekt předcházela v teoreticko-metodologické části důkladná analýza a syntéza odborné literatury, ale i hledání metodologie, která by mohla být na daný projekt aplikována. Oblastem aplikace reálných opcí, které jsou v praxi často označovány za nejkomplikovanější, jsem věnovala zvýšenou pozornost. Velký důraz jsem dala zejména na analýzu nejistot obsažených v projektu, identifikaci relevantních opcí a zjištění adekvátní míry volatility. Pečlivě stanovené vstupní opční parametry by měly být garancí správných opčních hodnot. Aplikací citlivostní analýzy opcí jsem se snažila upřesnit interpretaci zjištěných výsledků a závěrečných doporučení pro společnost.
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Ocenění práva vybírat daně pomocí opčního modelu
Vlachý, Jan ; Hnilica, Jiří (advisor) ; Pošta, Vít (referee) ; Starý, Oldřich (referee) ; Málek, Jiří (referee)
This Thesis uses several forms of a single-period option-based model to analyze the incidence of income tax under uncertainty, focusing on the various effects of tax asymmetries and observing the distinct features of individual and corporate taxation. Two particular applications are being advanced. The one strives to establish the economic effects of tax-deductibility, motivated initially by a thin-capitalization measure brought forth under the framework of the recent Czech public-finance reform. The pother one compares the terms of three distinct personal income-tax schedules, as they have been recently applied in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, investigating particular issues such as tiered rates, mandatory minimum tax, bracket creep, social taxes, as well as tax incidence in general. On the whole, we find that option-based models are well suited for miscellaneous forms of economic analysis under dynamic assumptions, overcoming the inherent limitations of comparative statics routinely used by mainstream economics. We also conclude that the Czech tax reform of 2008 has failed to achieve the level of economic neutrality and simplicity, characteristical for the Slovak flat-tax schedule of 2004. There are cases, where it has actually contributed to the emergence of new asymmetries.
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Real options
Semianiaka, Andrei ; Kislingerová, Eva (advisor) ; Scholleová, Hana (referee)
This thesis is dedicated to a new method of investment evaluation -- real options. The main goal is to simplify the method of real options. This objective is composed of three sub-secondary objectives: the classification of the various valuation methods, focusing on their benefits and pitfalls of practical application, simplifying the mathematical tools for calculating real options and applying the method of real options in the Czech Republic. The authors made use of both printed and electronic sources of information. The benefit of this work is that these resources come from three languages - Russian, Czech and English. The main scientific methods which were used in this thesis are analysis, synthesis, and mathematical-statistical methods. Work is intended for a narrow circle of readers dealing with the evaluation of investments.
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Information systems benefit quantification
Soukup, Václav ; Rosický, Antonín (advisor) ; Brixí, Radim (referee)
This study shows basic and advanced methods of information systems benefit quantification and applies selected methods to a real life problem. The practical part has been used to justify an information systems investment of already implemented and future systems. This work also appeals to a need of theoretical background and practical creativity when quantifying social properties of information systems. It is unacceptable to tolerate laical stance against social concepts of information systems and their quantification.
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